Thursday Treat: Josh Bell’s Future

When Christian Walker left the July 30 game against the Nationals early, the concern among D-backs fans was palpable, and the concern was justified, as the star first baseman was placed on the IL the next day. Having already sent its top first base prospect Deyvision De Los Santos (now the team’s No. 6 prospect) to Miami for AJ Puk a few days earlier, the team found itself in the unenviable position of trying to patch together a tandem of Pavin Smith and Kevin Newman or some other option. Mike Hazen instead quickly stepped in, securing veteran journeyman Josh Bell from those same Marlins for my favorite player: the one to be named later. At the time, I saw it as a necessary evil that hopefully wouldn’t last much longer than the most optimistic estimates of Walker’s IL stay. Amazingly, though, Bell has stepped in admirably for the Gold Glover, assuaging many of those early concerns for now. With nearly a quarter of the season still to play (and hopefully the postseason), it’s never too early to speculate on offseason transfers. As I wrote in my Deadline article, Walker is a looming free agent and has a good chance of leveraging his stability and overall value to any number of suitors. Given that possibility and the lack of clear replacements from the upper minor-level teams, I wonder if Bell might suddenly be a more attractive option than he was just a few weeks ago?

First, I must acknowledge that Bell’s tenure with the team has been extremely short, with only 13 appearances to date. Therefore, we should take all of the excellent results with a “small sample size” of a pinch of salt, as we would two weeks into the season. At the same time, the mood around Bell has been much more positive than I expected when he was signed. He certainly seems to be enjoying joining a team that has an excellent chance of making the postseason versus one that canceled the season just a month into the season. He also seems to fit well into the extra-hit organizational philosophy and locker room culture that Torey Lovullo has cultivated, especially over the last two seasons. And Bell has certainly proven the value he can bring to a team with his bat, having only gone two seasons without a Silver Slugger Award and consistently posting above-average boWAR.

In these small sample sizes, Bell has managed to post a slash line of .283/.345/.623 and has already hit a third of his home runs in Miami in just a tenth of the playing time. Unfortunately, while those numbers are nice and encouraging, Bell has always been a hitter-first player, having originally been rated with a 30/40 FV for his fielding as a junior prior to the 2017 season. Conversely, one of Walker’s fundamental traits was his ability to score both at the plate and in the field. Comparing the two directly for the 2024 season, you can see exactly how valuable Walker has been to the D-backs this season and why his absence would be felt so keenly if they were unable to re-sign him. While many of Bell’s stats are still buried under his mediocre performance with the Fins earlier this season (amazingly, he’s already added 0.1 bWAR in his short time with Sonoran Red), it’s not even a competition between the two veterans.

According to Spotrac’s analysis, Walker’s market value is about $22.5 million per year, and he could realistically seek a three-year deal with that AAV. Essentially, the question for the D-backs is simple: Are they willing to spend a significant portion of their payroll on a player entering his 34th season who could age poorly at the end of the contract? For comparison, that amount would make Walker the second-highest-value player on the team, with only Jordan Montgomery at $25 million per year being better. Last offseason’s spending spree notwithstanding, I find it hard to imagine Hazen and Co. absorbing that kind of financial commitment for a single player – regardless of how valuable he is to the team. Of course, Bell will only be a cheaper option if they can convince the right-hander to accept a salary around or less than his current $16.5 million price tag. Unfortunately, it is unclear how Hazen will address the problem, as there are no interesting internal options on the roster and Pavin Smith’s long-term success is in question.